Grain consumption in China has dramatically increased, with statistics revealing that grain imports in the first 11 months of 2012 were 2.5 times the imports for the same period of 2011. Import volumes of the three grains; rice, maize and soybeans, with total net import volume hitting 9.4 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2012, compared with 4 million tonnes in the same period of 2011.
Customs figures show that in the first 11 months of 2012, grain imports topped 65.89 million tonnes, more than 11% of the nation's estimated grain output of 589.57 million tonnes in 2012, driving down the self-supply rate for grain to 89%, six percentage points lower than the "red line" of 95% self-sufficiency.
On the one hand, China's government is worried that the growth in imports may in time threaten its policy of maintaining 95% sufficiency for grain consumption; while on the other, several countries are concerned that the scramble for grain by China may lead to global shortages. The figures have been greatly skewed however by an unusually large volume of soybean imports last year.
Prior to 2011, China only permitted limited imports of quality rice and wheat and there were virtually no imports of maize.
The state storehouse China Grain Reserves Corp points out that in recent years, China's statistics department has put soybean, boasting huge import volume, under the category of oily products, rather than grain. Excluding soybean imports, China's grain imports equaled only 2% of the nation's total grain output, enabling the self-sufficiency rate to stay well above the red line.
Even so, China is expected to suffer 1 million tonnes of shortfall in rice supply in 2013, forcing the country to rely on imports.
Many analysts predict that China will reexamine the 95% red line in the near future, as the National Bureau of Statistics forecasts the nation's grain consumption may top 650 million tonnes by 2020, compared with output of 550 million tons, a shortfall of 100 million tons.
The rapid growth of grain imports has also caused concern from researchers with regards to global grain safety and some pessimists conclude that China's rising demand will lead to shortages in the global supply.
Rabobank of Holland predicted that even if China imports maize to meet only 5% of its demand, the amount would equal one third to a half of the global maize crop, greatly affecting global supply.
Original Link WantChina Times